The unprecedented streak by Al-Hilal raises concerns about the predictability of the Pro League.

March 13, 2024

The unprecedented streak by Al-Hilal raises concerns about the predictability of the Pro League.

Supporters of The New Saints of Oswestry Town & Llansantffraid Football Club were undoubtedly rooting for Al-Ittihad on Tuesday. The team from Jeddah represented TNS's sole chance of preserving their world record for the longest winning streak by a men's top-tier team in all competitions. This record was established in December 2016 when the 16-time Cymru Premier champions clinched their 27th consecutive victory, ending Ajax's 44-year reign at the top. Unfortunately, Al-Ittihad fell short, allowing Al-Hilal to secure their 28th consecutive triumph and transfer the accolade from the English-Welsh border to Riyadh.

The last team to avoid defeat against Al-Hilal was Damac, who managed a 1-1 draw in September courtesy of a 30-yard free-kick by Nicolae Stanciu. This match marked Neymar's debut league start following his high-profile move to the Saudi Pro League, but his involvement in this streak has been limited due to a cruciate injury suffered while on duty with Brazil the following month. Instead, other players have stepped up. Aleksandar Mitrovic has been prolific, netting 28 goals in 30 league and Champions League appearances since joining from Fulham. Rúben Neves has made a strong impression from the outset, while Sergej Milinkovic-Savic has grown increasingly influential in the latter half of the season. Additionally, Brazilian winger Malcom, despite his significant transfer fee not garnering much attention, has settled in seamlessly, alongside Salem Al-Dawsari, the reigning Asian Player of the Year.

This sheds light on why Al-Hilal, led by coach Jorge Jesus, have maintained an impressive average of over three goals per game in the league this season. Their defensive prowess is evident as well, conceding on average just once every two games. Anchored by Kalidou Koulibaly alongside Ali Al-Bulaihi, their formidable defense also includes Saud Abdulhamid, a right-back with European caliber, and Moroccan goalkeeper Yassine Bounou.

Their lineup is formidable by any standards, particularly in Asian football, yet Al-Hilal benefits from being one of four Saudi Arabian teams backed by the country's Public Investment Fund, boasting substantial financial resources. Even prior to this backing, Al-Hilal operated like a well-oiled machine, consistently finding ways to secure victories, regardless of deficits in games or title races. Just two seasons ago, they trailed Al-Ittihad by 16 points but ultimately clinched the title for a record 18th time. With their current 28-game winning streak, Jesus's squad sits comfortably 12 points ahead of Al-Nassr and Cristiano Ronaldo's team in second place, seemingly destined for their 19th league title.

Having secured the Asian championship four times previously, Al-Hilal recently advanced to the Champions League's semifinals after defeating Al-Ittihad. There, they are favored to overcome Al-Ain from the United Arab Emirates, led by Hernán Crespo. With their domestic league lead nearly insurmountable, they can now concentrate their efforts on Asia, making them formidable contenders for a fifth continental crown.

As José Mourinho, a coach frequently linked with positions in Saudi Arabia, might assert, this heritage defines their footballing identity. However, supporters of other clubs often cite alternative reasons, such as favorable refereeing decisions and penalties. In a recent comeback 3-1 victory against struggling Al-Riyadh, Al-Hilal was awarded three penalty kicks, with Mitrovic converting one and missing another, while Neves successfully converted the third. This encapsulates the season for a team that, while not always displaying fluidity, consistently finds the back of the net – their last failure to score was 10 months ago – and hasn't conceded more than one goal since September 1st.

It's reasonable to question whether the Saudi Pro League is as predictable as some European leagues. To some extent, it is. "The Boss" has clinched five of the last seven titles and appears poised to make it six out of eight soon. While other clubs within the "Big Four" possess similar financial resources, they have struggled to match Al-Hilal's level of consistency. Analogous to the situation in Germany, where Bayern Munich perennially dominates while others intermittently challenge, a similar dynamic exists in Saudi Arabia. Al-Ittihad emerged victorious last season, Al-Nassr claimed the title in 2019, and Al-Ahli triumphed three years prior.

Al-Nassr boasts arguably bigger names such as Ronaldo, Sadio Mané, Marcelo Brozovic, and Aymeric Laporte. There's a reliance on these stars, particularly Ronaldo, to make a difference. However, even when they deliver, significant defensive vulnerabilities persist, with the team failing to secure a clean sheet in nine consecutive league matches. Following their recent elimination from the title race and Asian competition, coach Luís Castro finds himself under intense scrutiny.

While Al-Ittihad rightfully claimed the championship title last season, their recent acquisitions of Karim Benzema, N'Golo Kanté, Fabinho, and Jota haven't strengthened their squad. With Nuno Espírito Santo being replaced by Marcelo Gallardo, there are glimpses of the team becoming more expansive, but there's still progress to be made. Al-Ahli's promotion and the inclusion of Riyad Mahrez, Roberto Firmino, and Allan Saint-Maximin should secure them a top-three position, with expectations to further solidify their standing in the following season.

Nevertheless, history demonstrates that consistently challenging Al-Hilal is a daunting task, and the current scenario reaffirms their world-class winning mentality.

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